Customer Discovery #1: n>1

Talk to many potential customers when seeking to validate an unmet need.

None of My Colleagues Will Agree

Early in my startup career, I was working on the business case for an NIH Phase II grant for a medical device.  The device was a pressure-sensing catheter for the esophagus. To try to document the clinical applications and business case for this new tool, I was dialoguing with the gastroenterologist who was our collaborator on the Phase I grant.

I felt like I was getting nowhere with my questions about who might be interested in using this new product and what it would be good for. The doctor finally got fed up and sent me an exasperated message that I have never forgotten:  “Jen – Look you have to choose whether you believe me or not when I say this device will be transformational.  None of my colleagues will agree with me, but I know it will make a big difference.”

I just stared at my screen in surprise. None of my colleagues will agree with me? Our collaborator had just declared that his pet project had a market of ONE.  Eh gads! I wrote back and confirmed that my interpretation was correct. He was indeed saying that the device we were investing so much time and money in developing would likely only be used by his practice for the foreseeable future.

It was an indelible learning moment for me.  Never again have I relied on the passion of a single advocate to get a sense of the unmet need for a new product.  What I learned from that experience is that when you are investigating the potential need for a novel product, you must make sure to talk to not just one, but a number of your potential future customers.

Validating the Need

Over the years, as I investigated the potential of various innovative products to form the foundation of high potential businesses, I encountered many people who are passionate about a particular need or a particular vision of a possible product. Sometimes these enthusiastic advocates are famous leaders in their field. That does not mean that the idea they are advocating represents a significant unmet need or that the product meets that need in a compelling way. 

It may represent a significant unmet need.  It is essential that you validate the need by increasing your sample size beyond one person.  When you find an unmet need and product idea that consistently gets enthusiastic responses from many potential target customers, then and only then are you onto something. 

When I am vetting a potential business, I discipline myself to find at least 20 potential customers who get excited about the concept before I start to believe we might have something. Then I continue to test the idea again and again even as we begin to build a business plan. I keep careful notes on these discussions because the quotes from potential customers are often powerful elements of the initial fundraising story.  I also look for nuggets of insight that help me understand the crucial elements of the product, the elements that should be nurtured and developed along the way.

Remember that before you get too excited about what the passionate advocate is selling, be sure to get confirmation from an n (sample size) much greater than one.     

If you are interested in product development, I tackle the subject in more depth here.